Horse Racing
Kauto Star V Denman
With the Cheltenham festival Gold Cup race fast approaching for 2010, Kauto Star V Denman is the Hot Topic!
Which camp are you in? Let us know who you’re backing and why.
For weekly reports leading up to the big race and post race reporting following each day of racing during the festival……horse-guru.com is the pace to be for your racing fix!
News Flash…………………………
Denman is running on Saturday 13th Feb at Newbury! I’m keeping my fingers crossed that the frost and snow stays away as I’m going to go and watch him in action. So all you Denman fans get behind this machine of a horse and go support Denman at Newbury this Saturday.
***Newbury Races……what an eventful meet!***
I would love to say that Denman’s pre Cheltenham run went to plan but it couldn’t have been further from the truth. Coming into the home stretch A.P.McCoy was surprisingly not as far in the lead as would have been expected. When he suddenly hit the 4th from last fence we all thought his race was over but the amazing stickability of McCoy hung on in and managed to regain his balance. Then moments later in a brath taking and spectacular crash through the 3rd from last fence, Denman unseated McCoy! Ruby Walsh went on to win the race with a flying finish on the young Tricky Trickster.
So we have a new horse to watch out for in Tricky Trickster ( another Nicholls horse) but don’t give up on Denman just yet. He is a fighter and a machine. He takes longer to reach his peak for the season and there’s better to come from him. If the conditions go his way and the ground turns soft then he has all the chances of romping home at the Gold Cup.
Master Minded also provided some breath taking racing at Newbury. He cruised round the course in such a commanding style that when he hit the last fence we all thought he was going down. However this athletic animal who really did look a magnificent picture in the paddock managed to keep his cool, regain his lead and win the race in true champion style.
Watch out Cheltenham…..Master Minded is the one to beat!!
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The Cheltenham Festival count down!!
Only 7 days to go. I’ve been counting them down for some time now, probably since 13th March last year in truth, but the excitement has really gone into overdrive since Newbury’s excellent “Super Saturday” last month.
The Cheltenham Festival is the culmination of a fantastic season of jumps racing, which really started in earnest back in November with Kauto Star’s epic battle with Imperial Commander at Haydock, Master Minded’s shock defeat and subsequent injury after the Open at Cheltenham and Denman carrying all before him, and half a tonne in weight, in the Hennessey. And through several triumphs and falls we’ve now reached the business end of the season, this is where it all matters and this is where all the best horses are aimed. Cheltenham is, of course, the cream, but it would do a disservice to Aintree and Punchestown to ignore those two Spring Festivals that add so much spice to the racing calendar through April.
Much of the attention and hype pre Cheltenham has been surrounding the Gold Cup battle between Kauto and Denman, and rightly so. Denman, in any other era, would be a multiple Gold Cup winner and the best 3m chaser around. However, his era is very much the Kauto Star era! A Third Gold Cup battle between the two is possibly the greatest climax of all time to a Cheltenham Festival – we can only hope that it takes the sport right on to the back pages next week. It is, however, by no means the only race taking place at the Festival, and in fact Tuesday’s card looks stunning from top to bottom (more to follow on that nearer the time).
There is so much to talk about between now and next Tuesday, and I’ll try and cover as much as I can as well as adding some updates during the week. 26 races over 4 days, I can’t wait.
Cheltenham Festival Preview (Part I) – Bankers?
Finding a “banker” bet at The Festival is always tricky, there are 26 races of the highest quality and finding a winner can be akin to sticking a pin in a list of 10 names – Champion Hurdle anyone? There are, however currently 4 horses trading at odds on so I thought I’d take a look at each of them and whether they rate a “banker” material;
Dunguib – Supreme Novices Hurdle, Tuesday 16th March
Current Odds: 4/5 (1.94 Betfair).
Last year’s convincing Champion Bumper winner is undefeated in four starts over hurdles and possesses an unbelievable speed that has seen him carry all before him in his career to date. His breeding certainly points to a high calibre horse, but for all his speed there are question marks surrounding his hurdling ability. In his latest outing at Leopardstown there were several slow jumps and errors on the way round, however he was well held back in the field throughout and when finally asked to stretch his legs he produced his best jump at the last to cruise to another win. Either his jumping is suspect, or he needs a quicker pace to jump smoothly. However we are yet to know which as he is yet to be tested and taken off the bridle in any hurdle race and until that happens who will know what the answer is. Connections have definitely taken the right route in holding off on the Champion Hurdle for another year, despite its wide open nature. There is a lack of an obvious alternative; however Get Me Out of Here has growing market support (backed into 6-1 from 8’s, though still trading at 8-1 on Betfair).
Verdict – I think he probably will win, he has unbelievable speed and that alone may be enough. But he’s not a banker; my advice would be to watch how he goes in a harder run race and if he bolts up then back him for the 2011 Champion Hurdle!
Master Minded – Champion Chase, Wednesday 17th March
Current Odds: 4/5 (1.95 Betfair)
Started last year’s renewal as a mind blowing 30/100 favourite off the back of his awe inspiring 19l demolition of the field 12 months earlier. He was less impressive in his 7l triumph last year, but taken in isolation that’s still a pretty impressive performance and the double defending champion is a red hot favourite for a third crown. His two subsequent runs (a narrow win over Big Zeb and a defeat behind Well Chief and Mahogany Blaze) inspired much less confidence and he was clearly not at his best last season. The discovery of a fractured rib at least gave a reason for his poor last outing and once recovered he delivered a top draw performance at Newbury in the Game Spirit Chase, aside from a minor heart attack for all his supporters at the last. Is he back to his best? Paul Nicholls tells you he is and that he “never really got him right” in 2009, which is a scary thought. In the absence of the champion, Twist Magic has made hay in the 2m division and there is a lot to like about Kalahari King and his progression, however can either of them beat the champion around Cheltenham if he’s 100% right?
Verdict – I backed him at the start of the year, and again at Christmas while he was injured. The reaction to his win at Newbury tells you he’s the one the bookies fear (slashed from 8/5 down to 8/11) but some, notably Coral’s have been keen to lay him this week. I reckon he can win this at 80% so if he’s 100% then that’s a scary thought. Don’t forget that Twist Magic is the best of the rest and he’s very definitely the 2nd string in this stable pairing. Hail the hat-trick hero!
Big Bucks – World Hurdle, Thursday 18th March
Current Odds: 8/13 (1.71 Betfair)
The shortest priced favourite at present and that’s unlikely to change. He is many people’s banker of the week and that 8/13 could be 1/2 or shorter by 3.20 on Thursday week, in addition he’s surely the cornerstone of many multiples/accumulators through the week. The bookies will be praying for a slip up here! Unbeaten over hurdles since his return to the discipline after unseating Sam Thomas at Newbury in November 2008 (possibly the best mistake of all time with hindsight of what’s gone since) he defeated Punchestowns twice at Cheltenham last season to confirm his place at the head of the staying hurdling division. He’s hardly been extended in either outing this season, in fact the way he dismissed Lough Derg at Newbury in November was a little embarrassing! I was one of many looking forward to seeing Diamond Harry have a good go at taking over the mantle in the 3m Hurdle division but it seems that connections gave up the ghost rather early on that one which was disappointing.
Verdict – He’s the closest thing you’ll ever get to a true banker at Cheltenham. I can’t see anything even remotely in his class in this race. It will take big bucks to make him pay for you but find a way of getting him on your side next week.
Kauto Star – Gold Cup, Friday 19th March
Current Odds: 4/5 – with Hills only, 8/11 general (1.82 Betfair)
The Gold Cup favourite, and rightly so. The best race horse for 20 years? 50 years? Ever? You can argue all the way to Friday week, and then into the next 12 months, about this horses place in history. For me, he’s the greatest race horse I’ve ever seen and watching a re-run of his 2009 Gold Cup win was a spine tingling few minutes. His jumping, for so long his considered weakness, has been almost foot perfect ever since he unseated at Haydock in November 2008. Never more so than at Cheltenham last year. If he jumps clear he is very much the one to beat, and while Denman is a massive danger to name just one, I think his best chance has disappeared with the soft ground which has almost completely disappeared from the Cheltenham going. It will be a fantastic duel to finish the festival and, from my point of view, hopefully bury the Kauto v Denman debate for good!
Verdict – I’m pretty certain he will win. Denman, or another horse will have to jump out of their skin to beat him if he jumps round. 13 Grade 1’s do not lie and he’s the cream of the crop. However, would I want to bank on him when it’s possible Denman, Imperial Commander or even Cooldine could put in a 190 rated performance and beat him? Probably not. I’ll back him, I think he’ll win, but I think his odds are a touch short. Too much seems to have been made of McCoy unseating from Denman form my liking by the odds makers. Triple Gold Cup winner? Yes! Banker? No.
