Time to bite the Bullet and focus on the flat
It appears I’ve been rather quiet recently. In fact not a word has left my fingers since I was basking in the warm glow of the Jump season’s final throws, headlined by AP McCoy’s National win which was so spectacularly not tipped by me! It was though an emotional watch and finally put him in the centre of the public’s attention which this quiet man so deserves. I was hoping, subsequently to provide some “Cheltenham style” previews and updates from the Punchestown Festival but a small volcanic incident put paid to that, so the English sunshine and Sky TV had to suffice at marginally less expense!!!
Anyway onto the flat, an area I would certainly not nominate as my specialist subject but one to which I’m warming! Warming up enough to be looking forward to the biggest flat race on Saturday, but not with the same boyish excitement I’d have less than 48 hours before a Gold Cup. However, less than 48 hours away we are from the flat season’s jewel in the crown. The Derby. Along with Royal Ascot it’s probably the most iconic sporting moment of the summer to come from the sport of horse racing. Think summer and think cricket at Lords, cup finals at Wembley, tennis at Wimbledon and racing at Epsom and Ascot. Events like these always seem to be better in black and white, images of years gone by and “legends” that have passed and as such winning a Derby, like the Grand National, cements your place in sporting history and to a small extent in British history in a great iconic event.
Twelve months ago a striking three year old from across the Irish sea came into the race off the back of a surprise 2,000 Guineas win (though not a patch on this years 33/1 outsider/winner) and wrote himself a name in sporting history. Sea The Stars is probably the most famous racehorse since Shergar and it’s because of his exploits at Epsom that he cemented his place on route to an historic campaign. He added another four Group 1 races to his collection after Epsom before retiring as a great of the sport. However, all winter the talk had been about another three year old from across the sea, and in fact until a few days ago talking about the Derby meant talking about St Nicholas Abbey even given for a disappointing 6th in the Guineas. He was the new “wonder horse” but some unimpressive workouts for Aidan O’Brien lead to him being withdrawn with a muscle strain on Wednesday. So where to look for this race with the headline act gone?
Well the O’Brien stable are still well represented and hold the current bookmaker’s favourite in Jan Vermeer, a very easy winner of a good Group 3 at The Curragh two weeks ago. He was indeed the favourite for the last week or so before SNA’s withdrawal from the race and has an obvious chance if handling the further step up in trip and the Epsom course. He was, however, extremely comfortable in his latest race and that suggests there is more in the tank. And he’s not the only O’Brien colt with a chance; Midas Touch ran on well to take the Leopardstown Derby Trial by a couple of lengths and again suggests he might step up well in this class and to this trip.
The Sir Michael Stoute trained Workforce will have the champion jockey (Ryan Moore) on board and was a creditable second behind Cape Blanco (another O’Brien colt) in the Dante Stakes at York last month and considering that was only his second start her must rate a real chance. The Godolphin contingent will be headed by Rewilding under Frankie Dettori who has proved himself up to the distance at hand but needs to find a step up in class if he’s to challenge here.
I could go through a number of others but I’ll settle on Bullet Train, who is the one I’m drawn towards. He was mighty impressive in his Derby Trial win at Lingfield a month ago having improved for his first run out in early April, and for me he fits the profile of an improving sort that is likely to run his race and the course might just suit given his Lingfield performance. For value, Co-ordinated Cut and Ted Spread could enter the places at reasonable prices.
However, we don’t have to wait until Saturday with The Oaks and an excellent supporting cast tomorrow with the first five races all televised for those of you lucky enough not to be stuck in the office when the sun is shining outside! Penitent looked like a horse destined for big things when winning the Lincoln back in March and he stands an excellent chance in the opener, while I’d expect Fame and Glory, last year’s beaten Derby favourite, to have the measure of the Coronation Cup following up on a mightily impressive 7 length Group 1 success last time out.
The Oaks itself is as open a race as any handicap on the card, as such it doesn’t look an easy puzzle to solve. Rumoush had a difficult 1,000 Guineas where she wasn’t helped by the draw in a field that split quite dramatically. Henry Cecil always has a strong hand in these races and Timepiece was a long time ante-fancy and while still towards the head of the market the decision of Tom Queally to ride Aviate instead is very telling. A horse that caught my attention winning the Cheshire Oaks last month was Gertrude Bell but while the 2nd has won subsequently it’s still very hard to know just what to make of that form. Needless to say I couldn’t pick a winner with any confidence!
Therefore I’ll stick with some tips for Friday and Saturday. The nap is Fame and Glory in the Coronation Cup who has had some disappointments but looked right back to his best last time and is the clear pick of that race. The next best is Penitent in the Group 3 opener, I’m interested to see what he does after his Lincoln demolition at the beginning of the season. As for The Derby, I’m going for Bullet Train to offer a bit of value if Jan Vermeer doesn’t match the heights of his latest performance.
Tags: Bullet Train, Fame and Glory, Flat racing, Henry Cecil, Jan Vermeer, Sea The Stars, St Nicholas Abbey, The Derby, The Oaks
