The Grand National
Simply put it’s the most famous jump race in the world and probably the hardest to win, as a trainer, a jockey and a punter. From my point of view trying to decode a 40 horse handicap over four and a half miles is nigh on impossible, but for the horses and jockeys this is a brutal race. Just see the two races of the National fences Thursday and Friday for proof of that! There are some serious storylines brewing ahead of the race, so let’s not waste any time!!!
Can Mon Mome win again? In short, yes he can, but will he win again is probably the better question. When you’re looking for a National shortlist, any horse that has travelled round the four and a half miles has to be high on it, and any horse that has won is of particular interest. No longer the 100/1 shot of 12 months ago, he was backed into 2nd favourite after the impressive third in the Gold Cup. On that showing, backed up by Carruthers good follow up on Thursday to boost the form, he has every chance provided the Gold Cup hasn’t taken too much out of him. He has, however, taken a walk in the market from a solid 11/1 to 17.5 on Betfair Friday evening, and carrying 11st 7lbs is a big ask round these obstacles.
Is Big Fella Thanks a good thing for the Nicholls/Walsh axis? He’s a much more tempting price at the current 10/1 than the single figure forecast of earlier this week – any horse that’s single figure odds for a National has to be something very special to justify that kind of price and I’m not sure he’s that good! However, he’s a talented horse who will win a big prize soon and he has Ruby on board, and his National record in the last 10 years is the best of the best, in fact it’s as good as Paul Nicholls’ record is bad. If he runs up to form he’ll be very close, but he’s not as far ahead of the handicapper as the odds suggested and his current price is pretty fair.
Can AP win a National? It seems strange that the two giants of the Jump racing scene have precisely 0 Grand National wins between them – Nicholls’ best hope is Big Fella Thanks (as above) but McCoy rides Don’t Push It having chosen him over Can’t Buy Time. The short answer is of course he can win, but I don’t think he will (as sure as you can be in a race like this). He’s near the top of the weights, which isn’t as much of a disadvantage as it might have been had the rain continued, but he has several likely contenders ahead of him in my list. There’s some good form behind this horse, notably at Aintree last year and a close second at November’s Open meeting at Cheltenham where he was just held under a great late ride from AP. I wouldn’t begrudge AP his moment, we’d all love to see it, but not this year I’m afraid.
Can Nina Carberry beat the boys? If there is one horse I’d love to see give a good round and get home well it’s Character Building for Nina Carberry! No other reason, I’d love to see her get round in a place on her second National appearance. My emotional support, if not my money, will be behind her!
Will The Package be the first 7 year old to win the National since…? Well it’s since 1940 and Bogstar. Possibly every trend you look at in this race over the recent past seem to rule him out – he’s too young, he hasn’t been over the big fences, he hasn’t had enough chases etc. If the run from the last at Cheltenham in the William Hill Handicap had been a stride further he’d have won. Painfully he didn’t, but had he then he’d have been backed straight into second favourite, a position he’s flirting with now. 5lbs up on the handicapper on that performance, and carrying a feather weight down the bottom of the list. I believe, especially these days, that trends are there to be broken and are only guidelines and to rule this contender out on the basis of other horses in the past would be a bit silly. Along with lack of experience, the decision of Timmy Murphy to stick with Comply or Die (winner in 2008) was, whilst understandable, a bit of a blow. He picks up a good deputy in National winner Graham Lee, however.
Where’s my 100/1 winner this year? It’s a bit greed of the occasional punter to expect a nice 100/1 to oblige on their only punt of the year after last year’s result, however there are some horses at big prices who look a little overpriced. Flintoff carries bottom weight and with places in 2 national races, including a decent Midlands National effort he has to be worth a punt at 66/1, especially if you’re a cricket man like me. Carrying top weight looks like an impossible task in this race, but Madison Du Berlais is no slouch and 66/1 is a huge price for a horse of his considerable ability. Won at Aintree before and the flat track will suit him, it’s a step up in trip and toughness and he fell two years ago, however. Two at three figure prices that could surprise are another pair of seven year olds towards the bottom of the weights are Piraya who’s a decent sort if he stays the trip and the fences, and Palypso De Creek who’s been aimed at this for some time.
So, selections? I’m really sweet on The Package, regardless of the stats against him, Mon Mome has a very good chance, obviously, Comply or Die is proven over the race and at a longer price I think Flintoff can figure into a place.
Just a quick pick of the rest from the weekend
What A Friend wins his second Grade 1 – I fancied him for this, Imperial Commander disappointed as expected coming out so quick after the Gold Cup.
Big Buck’s – he’s just an amazing horse isn’t he?
General Miller – stunning finish from the General under Barry Geraghty, even more so as I backed it him!
Zaynar v Khyber Kim v Celestial Halo – The Aintree Hurdle at 2.50 today, and I have to have Zaynar in this race, 2m4f suits him down to the ground and Khyber Kim ran the race of his life at Cheltenham – for him read Imperial Commander, his stable mate!
Also, keep an eye on two Paul Nicholls horses at the bottom of the card – Ghizao and Tataniano, one will win but I’m just not sure which one!
Tags: AP McCoy, Big Bucks, Big Fella Thanks, General Miller, Imperial Commander, Khyber Kim, Mon Mome, Nina Carberry, The Grand National, The Package, What A Friend, Zaynar
