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It appears I’ve been rather quiet recently. In fact not a word has left my fingers since I was basking in the warm glow of the Jump season’s final throws, headlined by AP McCoy’s National win which was so spectacularly not tipped by me! It was though an emotional watch and finally put him in the centre of the public’s attention which this quiet man so deserves. I was hoping, subsequently to provide some “Cheltenham style” previews and updates from the Punchestown Festival but a small volcanic incident put paid to that, so the English sunshine and Sky TV had to suffice at marginally less expense!!!
Anyway onto the flat, an area I would certainly not nominate as my specialist subject but one to which I’m warming! Warming up enough to be looking forward to the biggest flat race on Saturday, but not with the same boyish excitement I’d have less than 48 hours before a Gold Cup. However, less than 48 hours away we are from the flat season’s jewel in the crown. The Derby. Along with Royal Ascot it’s probably the most iconic sporting moment of the summer to come from the sport of horse racing. Think summer and think cricket at Lords, cup finals at Wembley, tennis at Wimbledon and racing at Epsom and Ascot. Events like these always seem to be better in black and white, images of years gone by and “legends” that have passed and as such winning a Derby, like the Grand National, cements your place in sporting history and to a small extent in British history in a great iconic event.
Twelve months ago a striking three year old from across the Irish sea came into the race off the back of a surprise 2,000 Guineas win (though not a patch on this years 33/1 outsider/winner) and wrote himself a name in sporting history. Sea The Stars is probably the most famous racehorse since Shergar and it’s because of his exploits at Epsom that he cemented his place on route to an historic campaign. He added another four Group 1 races to his collection after Epsom before retiring as a great of the sport. However, all winter the talk had been about another three year old from across the sea, and in fact until a few days ago talking about the Derby meant talking about St Nicholas Abbey even given for a disappointing 6th in the Guineas. He was the new “wonder horse” but some unimpressive workouts for Aidan O’Brien lead to him being withdrawn with a muscle strain on Wednesday. So where to look for this race with the headline act gone?
Well the O’Brien stable are still well represented and hold the current bookmaker’s favourite in Jan Vermeer, a very easy winner of a good Group 3 at The Curragh two weeks ago. He was indeed the favourite for the last week or so before SNA’s withdrawal from the race and has an obvious chance if handling the further step up in trip and the Epsom course. He was, however, extremely comfortable in his latest race and that suggests there is more in the tank. And he’s not the only O’Brien colt with a chance; Midas Touch ran on well to take the Leopardstown Derby Trial by a couple of lengths and again suggests he might step up well in this class and to this trip.
The Sir Michael Stoute trained Workforce will have the champion jockey (Ryan Moore) on board and was a creditable second behind Cape Blanco (another O’Brien colt) in the Dante Stakes at York last month and considering that was only his second start her must rate a real chance. The Godolphin contingent will be headed by Rewilding under Frankie Dettori who has proved himself up to the distance at hand but needs to find a step up in class if he’s to challenge here.
I could go through a number of others but I’ll settle on Bullet Train, who is the one I’m drawn towards. He was mighty impressive in his Derby Trial win at Lingfield a month ago having improved for his first run out in early April, and for me he fits the profile of an improving sort that is likely to run his race and the course might just suit given his Lingfield performance. For value, Co-ordinated Cut and Ted Spread could enter the places at reasonable prices.
However, we don’t have to wait until Saturday with The Oaks and an excellent supporting cast tomorrow with the first five races all televised for those of you lucky enough not to be stuck in the office when the sun is shining outside! Penitent looked like a horse destined for big things when winning the Lincoln back in March and he stands an excellent chance in the opener, while I’d expect Fame and Glory, last year’s beaten Derby favourite, to have the measure of the Coronation Cup following up on a mightily impressive 7 length Group 1 success last time out.
The Oaks itself is as open a race as any handicap on the card, as such it doesn’t look an easy puzzle to solve. Rumoush had a difficult 1,000 Guineas where she wasn’t helped by the draw in a field that split quite dramatically. Henry Cecil always has a strong hand in these races and Timepiece was a long time ante-fancy and while still towards the head of the market the decision of Tom Queally to ride Aviate instead is very telling. A horse that caught my attention winning the Cheshire Oaks last month was Gertrude Bell but while the 2nd has won subsequently it’s still very hard to know just what to make of that form. Needless to say I couldn’t pick a winner with any confidence!
Therefore I’ll stick with some tips for Friday and Saturday. The nap is Fame and Glory in the Coronation Cup who has had some disappointments but looked right back to his best last time and is the clear pick of that race. The next best is Penitent in the Group 3 opener, I’m interested to see what he does after his Lincoln demolition at the beginning of the season. As for The Derby, I’m going for Bullet Train to offer a bit of value if Jan Vermeer doesn’t match the heights of his latest performance.
Simply put it’s the most famous jump race in the world and probably the hardest to win, as a trainer, a jockey and a punter. From my point of view trying to decode a 40 horse handicap over four and a half miles is nigh on impossible, but for the horses and jockeys this is a brutal race. Just see the two races of the National fences Thursday and Friday for proof of that! There are some serious storylines brewing ahead of the race, so let’s not waste any time!!!
Can Mon Mome win again? In short, yes he can, but will he win again is probably the better question. When you’re looking for a National shortlist, any horse that has travelled round the four and a half miles has to be high on it, and any horse that has won is of particular interest. No longer the 100/1 shot of 12 months ago, he was backed into 2nd favourite after the impressive third in the Gold Cup. On that showing, backed up by Carruthers good follow up on Thursday to boost the form, he has every chance provided the Gold Cup hasn’t taken too much out of him. He has, however, taken a walk in the market from a solid 11/1 to 17.5 on Betfair Friday evening, and carrying 11st 7lbs is a big ask round these obstacles.
Is Big Fella Thanks a good thing for the Nicholls/Walsh axis? He’s a much more tempting price at the current 10/1 than the single figure forecast of earlier this week – any horse that’s single figure odds for a National has to be something very special to justify that kind of price and I’m not sure he’s that good! However, he’s a talented horse who will win a big prize soon and he has Ruby on board, and his National record in the last 10 years is the best of the best, in fact it’s as good as Paul Nicholls’ record is bad. If he runs up to form he’ll be very close, but he’s not as far ahead of the handicapper as the odds suggested and his current price is pretty fair.
Can AP win a National? It seems strange that the two giants of the Jump racing scene have precisely 0 Grand National wins between them – Nicholls’ best hope is Big Fella Thanks (as above) but McCoy rides Don’t Push It having chosen him over Can’t Buy Time. The short answer is of course he can win, but I don’t think he will (as sure as you can be in a race like this). He’s near the top of the weights, which isn’t as much of a disadvantage as it might have been had the rain continued, but he has several likely contenders ahead of him in my list. There’s some good form behind this horse, notably at Aintree last year and a close second at November’s Open meeting at Cheltenham where he was just held under a great late ride from AP. I wouldn’t begrudge AP his moment, we’d all love to see it, but not this year I’m afraid.
Can Nina Carberry beat the boys? If there is one horse I’d love to see give a good round and get home well it’s Character Building for Nina Carberry! No other reason, I’d love to see her get round in a place on her second National appearance. My emotional support, if not my money, will be behind her!
Will The Package be the first 7 year old to win the National since…? Well it’s since 1940 and Bogstar. Possibly every trend you look at in this race over the recent past seem to rule him out – he’s too young, he hasn’t been over the big fences, he hasn’t had enough chases etc. If the run from the last at Cheltenham in the William Hill Handicap had been a stride further he’d have won. Painfully he didn’t, but had he then he’d have been backed straight into second favourite, a position he’s flirting with now. 5lbs up on the handicapper on that performance, and carrying a feather weight down the bottom of the list. I believe, especially these days, that trends are there to be broken and are only guidelines and to rule this contender out on the basis of other horses in the past would be a bit silly. Along with lack of experience, the decision of Timmy Murphy to stick with Comply or Die (winner in 2008) was, whilst understandable, a bit of a blow. He picks up a good deputy in National winner Graham Lee, however.
Where’s my 100/1 winner this year? It’s a bit greed of the occasional punter to expect a nice 100/1 to oblige on their only punt of the year after last year’s result, however there are some horses at big prices who look a little overpriced. Flintoff carries bottom weight and with places in 2 national races, including a decent Midlands National effort he has to be worth a punt at 66/1, especially if you’re a cricket man like me. Carrying top weight looks like an impossible task in this race, but Madison Du Berlais is no slouch and 66/1 is a huge price for a horse of his considerable ability. Won at Aintree before and the flat track will suit him, it’s a step up in trip and toughness and he fell two years ago, however. Two at three figure prices that could surprise are another pair of seven year olds towards the bottom of the weights are Piraya who’s a decent sort if he stays the trip and the fences, and Palypso De Creek who’s been aimed at this for some time.
So, selections? I’m really sweet on The Package, regardless of the stats against him, Mon Mome has a very good chance, obviously, Comply or Die is proven over the race and at a longer price I think Flintoff can figure into a place.
Just a quick pick of the rest from the weekend
What A Friend wins his second Grade 1 – I fancied him for this, Imperial Commander disappointed as expected coming out so quick after the Gold Cup.
Big Buck’s – he’s just an amazing horse isn’t he?
General Miller – stunning finish from the General under Barry Geraghty, even more so as I backed it him!
Zaynar v Khyber Kim v Celestial Halo – The Aintree Hurdle at 2.50 today, and I have to have Zaynar in this race, 2m4f suits him down to the ground and Khyber Kim ran the race of his life at Cheltenham – for him read Imperial Commander, his stable mate!
Also, keep an eye on two Paul Nicholls horses at the bottom of the card – Ghizao and Tataniano, one will win but I’m just not sure which one!
The last couple of weeks in the racing calendar are probably best described as the middle ground, no-mans land, after the Cheltenham Festival but before the Grand National, after the start of the Flat season but before it really gets going. It’s all a little empty really, not helped by a vacant bank holiday on Good Friday – surely that must be something to change for future?!
All the racing in this period has a feel of an anti-climax, coming off the resounding high that the Cheltenham Festival produces, the new champions and superstars it crowns. All eyes head to Aintree, Punchestown and then onto next season with some decent jump racing to entertain but no major stars as they’re all safely tucked away after their main events of the season.
I’m not a huge fan of racing on the flat, as will become obvious, and the slightly staggered start to the turf season has left me occupying my time thinking about 2011’s storylines. Which horses I’m looking forward to seeing in new circumstances, which ones I want to see continue at the top and whether some can come back from disappointing Festival runs (that goes for most Cheltenham favourites!!!).
Over the past few months I’ve become a massive fan of Big Buck’s and he continues to dominate the staying hurdle division, looking to add another prize to his reputation this Thursday at Aintree where he’ll face the impressive Cheltenham runner-up Time For Rupert again. However, in the aftermath of Zaynar’s third place in the Champion Hurdle it was reported that connections wanted to step up to three miles and have a crack at the champion next season. Well, what a prospect that will be to look forward to and build up to through next season – much like the potential Diamond Harry v Big Buck’s duel could have built this season. I’m already a big fan of Zaynar and he has an early opportunity over 2m4f to re-assert himself as a big player over a distance that suits far more than the 2m Champion Hurdle ever did.
In the same race this week Celestial Halo will have his last run over hurdles before a chasing career begins in the autumn. I’m intrigued more than excited by this switch, but he’s certainly one I’ll be watching with interest. Of the other novice chasers for 2010/11 the re-appearance of the supremely talented Mikael D’Haguenet will surely grab the centre of attention when he finally makes it off the injury list! Woolf Moon is one in the 3m category I’m also keen to see after he won so impressively at Cheltenham in January.
The major thought for me though is the potential Gold Cup line up in 12 months time; Imperial Commander, Denman, Kauto Star, Long Run, Cooldine, What A Friend, Weapons Amnesty, Punchestowns and Joncol all spring to mind immediately along with two favourites of mine; Somersby, who is being stepped up in trip after an impressive Arkle second when he couldn’t quite close up on Sizing Europe and Weird Al who was so unlucky to be injured when he was, a feeling accentuated after seeing the RSA Chase unfold. I believe he’s have been right there throughout and stood a massive chance. If they can keep him wrapped up well through the season I think he can figure in the big one.
Just out of that list, and on a slight tangent, the thought of Kauto Star v Long Run at Kempton on Boxing Day isn’t bad either is it? They both relish that flat, tight circuit and if not this year then pretty soon we’re going to see a new force dominate that race!
For now though, thoughts are dominated by Aintree and the three day National meeting, culminating in the Grand National on Saturday afternoon. There are a few I fancy already in this, but I’ve not delved too deeply into the card or weights and have left the ante-post market alone until I know the conditions on the day. A 20 horse handicap over 2m5f is hard enough, but a 40 horse handicap over 4m4f is near impossible to call with any certainty. I’ll be back with some previews prior to the weekend and reflections on the other two days of racing, however unfortunately I have to work Thursday and Friday so won’t catch most of the action. Likewise with the first two days of the Cheltenham meet next week, but I should catch the Friday evening and at least a day or two over the Irish Sea at Punchestown so it’s not all bad!
So it’s been almost a week now and I’ve since travelled the width of the country, twice, but finally I can sit down and review a memorable, and slightly wet Gold Cup Friday at Cheltenham.
It started nice and dry, and with that in mind and the ground still on the good side Barizan ran back to his late summer and early autumn form and it took a well paced chase by Barry Geraghty on Soldatino to catch him up the hill. That, in itself, was a marginally predictable result, but what followed in the next two races followed the theme of the week, namely long price winners, long price places and a succession of favourite flops!
Off the back of this and the week to date it should have been fairly obvious that the Gold Cup itself was never going to be the two horse race it was widely publicised to be. I had written a fairly glowing recommendation of Imperial Commander as the chief rival to Kauto Star, though I still couldn’t see the latter being beaten. However, jumping is the name of the game and it only ever takes one mistake! The atmosphere surrounding that race is as unique as I have ever experienced, every jump received a reaction from the crowds packed into the racecourse with clear divides in support between the “big two” in the race. Denman jumped pretty solidly throughout but Kauto started really well, jumping with some real zest, almost too well, too keen, pinging way over at least two of the first seven fences. Just as I was pleading with Ruby to settle him down and hold him back a little he hit the eighth, and when I say he hit it I mean he went straight through it, it was a minor miracle that Ruby stayed on board frankly. Though I probably wouldn’t have admitted at that point, being firmly in Kauto’s corner (emotionally and financially), his race was pretty much over there. To make a mistake like that in a Gold Cup would require either the kind of comeback even Frank Sinatra couldn’t manage or a similar mistake from his principle rivals. He probably would have run on to finish third had he made it, however he didn’t. 6 days on I still don’t quite know how both horse and jockey came away from that fall in one piece, it makes my stomach turn to watch it again, a fall with broken neck and crushed jockey written all over it! Thankfully Kauto walked away, with Ruby on his back, to fight another day. What mental scars remain, however, is a completely different matter.
Throughout all of this Imperial Commander under the supremely confident Paddy Brennan was moving smoothly, jumping perfectly, stalking the great tank in front of him who is supposed to run the legs off his rivals. Before two out I was staggered how good he looked, he had the race “in his pocket” as I might have said a few times in the run to the second last. He won, going away up the hill…he stays three and a quarter miles alright, and he certainly loves Cheltenham. He’s now the second highest rated horse in training off the back of the performance, and rightly so. Had Kauto finished he’s probably be the highest right now but Kauto’s mammoth King George effort still dwarfs him, in rating terms at least. The Commander will be a tough nut to crack in 12 months at a track he loves and he’s improving all the time.
In fact if you line up all the possible for next year’s Gold Cup it’s a pretty mouth watering prospect to keep you going over the next 12 months.
I could see Paddy Brennan’s point when he crossed the line, this race had been wrongly hyped up as a two horse race, “The Decider” and it did a disservice to at least two other top class Grade 1 winning horses and a Grand National champion who ran a blinder of a race to finish third. I don’t think he chose the right way to do it but the point was valid, having said all that, the hype that was generated around the Gold Cup really pushed racing to the fore of the news and sport for a few weeks and long may that continue.
That victory kick started a Nigel Twiston-Davies powered treble in the last four races, with his son making all in the Foxhunter and a favourite in these parts, Pigeon Island winning the Grand Annual to round it all off. Better late than never I suppose.
If the first three days were unpredictable then the fourth more than matched it, and the headline was taken by a new star in a race that was expected by many to be dominated by the existing axis of power in the Paul Nicholls yard. I, like many left the week much poorer in pocket but we got 4 days of supreme racing and some new superstars of the sport putting down their markers to join the elite. My mind is already racing ahead twelve months and who we might see contesting the championship races, but there are still the small matters of Aintree and Punchestown to come before the curtain falls on this long and unpredictable season.
So it’s finally arrived, for so long so far away it’s now just a few hours away! It’s the most hyped up race for a long time, but rightly so. You have two of the best racehorses of modern times with the two best jockeys in the game on board, and they’re stable mates to top it up!
It’s not just a two horse race; there are five very live contenders for the crown, all of whom have real claims. Tricky Trickster is the outsider of the five, but I’ve been massively impressed with the progress of this horse, and in the absence of Sam Thomas, picking up Barry Geraghty for the ride is a real tick against his name. He’s the popular outside choice and if you can get ¼ odds for a top 3 finish then something in the region of 4/1 for a place is a very good price indeed. I fancy him to run another career best today and he’ll be well in the mix.
Cooldine causes more questions than answers! He hosed up by sixteen lengths in the RSA last year and looked like the Gold Cup contender to emerge from the novice field, but he’s followed up with some disappointing results this season. His early season progress was hampered with some injuries and he showed an improvement when second behind a very likable Irish horse in Joncol who was running at his peak in their meeting a few weeks back. If he replicates hi RSA form he stands a live chance but his time may be 12 months in the future.
Denman is the clear second favourite for the race, the 2008 champion who was so impressive that day running the legs off Kauto and forcing a fairly ragged round of jumping from the champion. But he’s had health problems since and has been unconvincing since his return, well beaten twice and looking beaten when he fell at Aintree last April. His performance in the Hennessey deserves massive respect and while What A Friend has franked that form to a degree I’m still not 100% convinced by it. His subsequent run at Newbury was not that clever, ignoring his unseating of AP, which isn’t the major thing to look at, but he was struggling to extend from Niche Market at the time and as a 1/6 favourite he was struggling to shake off the challenge. I think he may well have won, but Tricky Trickster, as we subsequently saw was well held by Ruby and would have got close. I felt prior to Newbury that he stood a chance on soft ground, and soft ground only; this morning the ground is good and will be good at 3.20 this afternoon. At his best he could run Kauto all the way and exploit any chink in the armour, but I think we may have seen the best he has to offer two years ago and I’m not sure he’ll figure a prominently as the hype would suggest.
For me, Imperial Commander is the big threat. This is a horse that enjoys Cheltenham, has won at the Festival and ran Kauto within an inch at Haydock in a race I’m still convinced he won! He stays three miles, that much that performance proved, but whether he stays 3 and a quarter around Cheltenham is another question. I’ve always felt that the Gold Cup is a three and a half mile race with the undulations in the track and whether that’s in his range is the big question, but then I wasn’t convinced he’d stay three miles in the Betfair Chase and he was finishing stronger than the champion.
However, heart and head are both leaning in one direction! The better half has already warned me there may be tears if Kauto Star makes it an historic hat-trick and a fourteenth Grade 1 and I may be just the same. He’s a truly wonderful horse and if he jumps as well as his last three or four starts, particularly the 2009 Gold Cup and King George where he was unbeatable, he’ll win by a distance. I’m trying not to let me heart rule my head in the betting ring but I look at it and on good ground Kauto Star is ten pounds better than the field, he is the one horse who will benefit from a good ground Gold Cup and I can’t see another winner and I think he’s till massive value even at his odds-on price.
The rest of the card is top class, as always at Cheltenham. A couple of highlights are the Triumph Hurdle with five or six showing real claims. Alaivan and Advisor head the field for me, I think the former will overturn his form with Carlito Brigante this time, Nicky Henderson has another strong hand with Soldatino but I think the value stands with Westlin’ Winds at a general 11/1 to get the day off to a good start. Another to benefit from the good ground is likely to be Barizan who was so impressive early season and he’s worth keeping an eye on at a longer price.
Both the County Hurdle and the Grand Annual will represent some real value throughout the field and I’m sweet on Bellvano to back up his Newbury win over Tito Bustillo by giving him 5lbs and winning the County Hurdle. He was widely derided after a convincing defeat by Menorah at Christmas but that defeat doesn’t look so bad now does it? I think he’s great value at double figures. I really like Paul Nicholls hand in the curtain call as well, but I’m slightly surprised Ruby has chosen the impressive Free World over the novice Tataniano, a horse that I back for the Arkle and despite recent disappointment if he’s back to the form he showed around this course in November he’s real value.
Today’s Nap – Kauto Star, Cheltenham Gold Cup 3.20pm
Next Best – Bellvano in the County Hurdle, 2.05 looks good value given his recent boost in form
Best Bet – I have a gut feeling Denman won’t run into the places in the Gold Cup so any combination of a Kauto-Imperial Commander, Kauto-Tricky Trickster exacta or a Kauto-IC-TT trifecta will be worth a gamble. Also, Tricky Trickster as an each way bet looks massive value.
You may have noticed a lack of update to this blog last night and this morning! I think that a couple of long days and constant beatings (with a big old stick) from the bookmakers had taken their toll so I needed to recharge my batteries with a good and long sleep.
Anyway, just thought I’d have a quick look back over the last couple of days and a few things that had caught my eye. Now, to say this has not been the most straight forward of Festival’s would be understating slightly, only 3 favourites have crossed the line in front in 19 races and often the winners have not come from a “usual suspects” shortlist.
St Patricks Day started with a battle up the hill, at the end of four miles, between two ladies from the Emerald Isle ending with a beaming Katie Walsh holding off Nina Carberry to become the second Walsh to get a victory this week, much to father Ted’s delight. Peddlers Cross confirmed his obvious potential winning the Neptune in a race where I felt the drying ground would play right into the hands of the flat experience of Rite Of Passage, wrong again!
Weapon’s Amnesty added the first of a double in the big two races for the Irish lengthening away after the last to win by seven lengths from the much improving Burton Port – there is a lot to like about the way that horse has improved and will surely go onto better things. Long Run was always pulling a little hard and ultimately that caught up with him inside the last half a mile and he tired up the hill. Still only five years old he maintains all the ability and scope I saw before this day and it seems he will be aimed at a mouth-watering King George clash with Kauto this Christmas!
My feeling in the immediate aftermath of the Champions Chase was one of disappointment, Wednesday was all about Master Minded for me and not to see him complete the hat-trick was a real downer. However, on reflection we got to see a horse that has always possessed the potential to run a race like this and Big Zeb, aided by the better ground, jumped well and had too much in the tank for his more experienced counterpart. Master Minded just couldn’t keep up with the pace and, ultimately this may be his last crack at a Champion Chase with maybe a step to the “in between” distance beckoning? Forpadydeplasterer confirmed last year’s Arkle form and given an injury free run next year he must prove a major player!
Spirit River gave Barry Geraghty a quick-fire double in the Coral Cup, in which I thought I was onto a good thing when Wishfull Thinking stumbled on landing and fell 2 out on the run down the hill. James De Vassey ran on well in third and he’s a horse I still very much like the look of. Ruby landed the second Walsh winner of the day, cruising past the field on Sanctuaire for a comfortable win in the Fred Winter.
The Bumper however produced one of the most striking winners with the little fancied Cue Card producing a devastating burst of speed to run on past Al Ferof up the hill to score by eight lengths! Both of the first two look impressive types and I look forward to seeing them over obstacles next year.
So another victory for the bookies on day two, but I returned for Ladies Day feeling well rested and ready for round 3, and to an extent my faith in racing was restored with Big Buck’s ultra impressive victory in the World Hurdle. He’s fast becoming a favourite horse of mine and the manor of his win today was as bloodless as you’ll see in a championship race at Cheltenham for a long time, he simply cruised up past the impressive Time For Rupert with Ruby motionless on board. He’s never the most straight forward and he’ll never win a race by 15 or 20 lengths but he’s held expertly until the right time and wins with the minimum of fuss.
Other notable performances saw AP McCoy pick himself up from a heavy fall to win on Albertas Run in the Ryanair Chase, one I have to say I didn’t see coming but the champ seems to be having a good week of it at present.
Anyway, that’s all I can muster at present, I need a good night’s sleep before the biggest day of the year tomorrow. I’ll post some form of preview post before heading off for the day but I’m pretty sure it will centre around one race and one horse, with honourable mentions to few others!
It’s been four years since the two biggest Irish holidays; St Patricks Day and the Festival have combined. In 2006 it was Gold Cup Day itself, but today’s atmosphere will be no less special and might just help to heal the wounds of those from the Emerald Isle who piled into their first two “good things” yesterday afternoon only to see them disappoint. The score ended yesterday 3-3 but it was definitely 5-1 to those pesky bookies, or about 28-0 in my own personal battle…oh well, today is as they say another day!
I have to say that today much like the Wednesday last year is a day that transcends gambling and more about watching a class performer than many other days. Master Minded is a true superstar of the sport and, as the tone of a couple of my preview blogs may have slightly given away, he’s a massive favourite of mine. I’ve seen his previous two Champion Chase wins and I can’t wait to see him ping round the Old Course this afternoon, I just don’t see him getting beaten. Famous last words – I believe I said something similar about 5th placed Garde Champetre yesterday?!
Prior to the Champion Chase is the race I’ve been looking forward to for some time and at this point I was expecting to be tipping up Weird Al again at a decent price, however his chances went up in smoke over the weekend (along with my big price antepost bet) and it’s a real shame as I think he has the potential to be a real superstar, but he’s just a little fragile. The big talk will be about a match between Long Run and Punchestowns but Diamond Harry and the Irish raider Weapons Amnesty have serious claims also. Having reviewed his couple of performances, and those of Punchestownns, I’m massively impressed with Long Run. On his UK debut he hosed up at Kempton on Boxing Day, his time over 3m was about 8 seconds behind the time that Kauto later posted in demolishing the King George field, so based on that he would have just about finished second. Would Punchestowns have finished second in the King George? I don’t think so. Now that’s possibly a bit misleading, and whole I have concerns over his jokey, Long Run is going to win some big races and I think he could lay down a massive marker as a five year old chaser today.
There are a lot of big fields and handicaps to get your teeth into today, it’s always a hard punting day but if you can pick one winner from those races you’ll have a good day! From the four miler to the Bumper it promises to be another excellent day. Just a quick couple of horses that have caught my eye are Massasoit to retain the four miler for Paul Nicholls and another couple of his horses to run well; Ghizao at a decent price in the Neptune though his future lies over the larger obstacles next year and Al Ferof in the bumper, though it may just prove too good in the ground for him.
Today’s nap: Master Minded – Queen Mother Champion Chase, 3.20 pm
Next Best: Long Run – RSA Chase, 2.40pm
Just thought I’d put in a few lines on today’s action now I’m back home in one piece! What a glorious day at the foot of Cleeve Hill, it felt almost like one of the late spring meets with the clear sky and temperatures and there were some outstanding performances and stories to come out of day one of the 2010 Festival.
Wandering around the course in the midday sunshine in the build up there was only one name everywhere, not the £1m chasing Go Native, but Dunguib. He was the one everyone wanted to see today, make no mistake about that, and, well, whilst he was a close third he never really looked like getting home in front with the exception of a few moments around the top turn in to the straight where he looked ominously good and travelling the best of the bunch. Menorah proved too strong for both him and Get Me Out Of Here and kicked off a good day for followers of Pricewise, who also scored a 40-1 (SP 28-1) winner of the Cross Country event. More questions than answers about Dunguib, but this was a proper race and there would be no shame in a close third. He’ll come again, but the hurdling has to improve. If he gets that right then he has the engine of a Champion Hurdler.
The Arkle provided all its usual excitement, and Sizing Europe put his Boxing Day run behind him and delivered another massively impressive performance. He looks a future star, why did we ever doubt him. Captain Cee Bee was undone by his jumping and never really travelled and was well out of the frame by the final flight but Somersby jumped and travelled well, as expected, and stayed on strongly up the hill to challenge in second. His day will come and I’ve no doubt there is a big race in him somewhere along the line over fences, perhaps slightly up in trip may better suit? Next year’s 2m5f Ryanair, possibly?
The William Hill Trophy, again, provided the best finish of day one with The Package coming from miles back two from home – prompting me to say “he’s lost it” – to run out of track by about 10 yards. A photo was called but it looked fairly clear that Chief Dan George had held on to a surprise win. From a betting rather than a racing perspective I think that was the pivotal moment of the day as after the two Irish “bankers” had failed, The Package had been very strongly backed at a decent price to put the punters on the front foot.
I have to say that at this point I was feeling pretty good, admittedly I hadn’t won anything, but I’d steered clear of the big bet on Dunguib and had Get Me Out Of Here as my placepot banker, backed Somersby to run a big race after being tempted by Sizing Europe and written off Captain Cee Bee on account of his jumping, and then fancied The Package who finished like a train to be only just denied. My judgement, I felt, was good, if not entirely profitable! And this was good, because I still had no idea who to trust in the Champion Hurdle!
I had earlier entrusted my placepot in the hands of Go Native and Khyber Kim, and after much head scratching I decided to back the local boy (each-way luckily). The drying ground led me tempted by Go Native, but fortunately I resisted. I was positioned by the last flight, which was also the second, and while I didn’t see the error itself, Paul Carberry was fairly bounced into the air – it was a mistake from which he never recovered and never got in the running. We waited for him to be produced, waited and waited but he never came! Instead, Binocular did what he was fancied to do last year! Always looking the strongest in running he cruised up to take on the lead and under a typical McCoy ride stretched out before the fast finishing Khyber Kim threatened, but only briefly. He is a real talented horse, who has always been capable of that type of performance. I couldn’t have him as the winner because I just couldn’t trust him to deliver. But deliver he did and AP was clearly delighted. If he can keep this level up he’ll take some beating next year…but then that’s what we’ve said for the past two years!
In the aftermath of this I was still in line for the placepot payout I’d been craving but unfortunately my nap, Garde Champetre let me down uncharacteristically. Not only not winning and scuppering that bet and my double, but also surrendering the last placed position on the run in. When Voler La Vedette limped home a well beaten third by Quevega in the last I was not amused on several counts!
So, from a gambling point of view I’ve returned home to lick my wounds, I’m pretty certain that I’m not alone, there were some pretty desperate faces before the last race saved a few days. But from a racing view point I’ve returned home to savour what was a fantastic day and it’s only whetted the appetite for the next three days and twenty races.
I need to prepare for battle with the bookies tomorrow, but I’ll try and pop up some form of preview in the morning about tomorrows racing which sees one of my favourite horses and one of the races I’m most looking forward to. I can’t wait.
What a beautiful morning. Every day at the festival is full of quality racing, but I always look forward to the Tuesday card and not only because it’s the beginning of the festival but I think it is the strongest card of the week. From the cavalry charge of the novices in the opener through to an intriguing match race between two quality Mares in the sixth race of the day.
I’m sure I’m not the only one who struggled to sleep last night, the anticipation of that first roar that goes off as the novices charge down the hill for the opening exchanges of this years’ Festival is one I’ve waited to hear. That race itself will answer one of the burning questions, how good is Dunguib? Is his jumping going to let down his amazing flat speed and athleticism? I won’t be with him, but I’m certainly not against him, I think he’s a potential future champion hurdler but he needs to prove he can do it on the big stage, in a big field over hurdles.
The more I watched replays yesterday afternoon, the more I’ve convinced myself that Somersby’s jumping will win the Arkle. It seems he so effortlessly clears the obstacles but at the same time he doesn’t ping them too high, there is just enough effort expended. Sizing Europe on his pre-Boxing Day form is a clear chance, and if he drifts too high as the Irish get stuck into their other hot chance, Captain Cee Bee, then he could become the value bet. I like Captain Cee Bee, my only worry is that he jumps a bit steeply and that’s led to errors in his last two races, one costly and one not so, but whether a steep descent will cost him with a fall or lack of momentum guard me against siding with him.
The William Hill Trophy Handicap looks pretty open as you go through the field but I think The Package looks a good thing and I expect him to go well, but there are some good each way prices available, especially if Razor Royale can cope with his rise in the weights and replicate his recent performance.
The Champion Hurdle has been previously previewed here, but it’s so wide open it could just about go to one of nine with all eyes on the bonus seeking Go Native and the Good to Soft (Good in Places) morning going will certainly encourage him. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that going changed after the first race.
The final two races are two really intriguing contests. The Cross Country is always a compelling spectacle and a personal favourite and it contains a Cheltenham favourite in Garde Champetre, this horse has won the last 2 renewals of this race, as well as the two races over the cross country course this season, both in impressive style, and both giving away a stack of weight. Again he’ll carry top weight and giving 5lbs plus all round, and while there’s plenty to like about a horse like L’Ami I’m staggered that the 9/4 is still available about this horse this morning. He’ll be produced late by Nina Carberry but I expect him to complete a hat-trick, both for the season and at the Festival.
And in the final race, the Mares Hurdle there looks to be an intriguing match race between Quevega and Voler La Vedette. Quevega, last year’s winner saddled by Ruby Walsh and trained by Willie Mullins has been the long time antepost favourite but the support for Voler La Vedette has got stronger and stronger in the days approaching the meeting and she forced her way into favouritism on Sunday and I think she may well be the big gamble of the day – I don’t expect the 2/1 to be available come 4.40, this is after all a horse that beat Go Native by thirteen lengths, which even giving for the Champion Hurdle contenders lack of fitness at that stage is an impressive effort. 2m4f around Cheltenham is a slight stamina concern but this is a horse I wanted to be with wherever she was aimed, she had a Champion Hurdle entry, and in the weaker race she’s definitely the pick of the bunch.
Today’s Nap: Garde Champetre (Cross Country Chase, 4.00pm) – 9/4
Next best: Voler La Vedette (Mares Hurdle, 4.40pm) – 2/1
Best Bet: Win double, Voler La Vedette & Garde Champetre – should return around 6/1 on projected SP’s
Kauto Star v Denman – Part III
For my final preview post before this week’s extravaganza kicks off tomorrow I obviously have to look at the blue ribband event, the Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup on Friday.
Much has been made of this race as a match between two of the best horses of the last twenty years, Denman and Kauto Star, and while they should rightly share the spotlight and the publicity in hyping up this event there are at least three other horses worthy of some serious consideration.
Imperial Commander ran Kauto Star within an inch of the line at Haydock in November; it was his first run over three miles and, to some degree, answered whether he could stay the distance. Admittedly Kauto was in need of the run, as he’s proved since, but it was undoubtedly an impressive performance considering Madison Du Berlais was another twenty four lengths back in third. That’s often overlooked; it’s considered that Kauto was below par that day, but he still beat a very good horse by 24 lengths. Imperial Commander ran out of skin that day and is often better when fresh. He was disappointing at Kempton on Boxing Day but he’s never ran well going right handed and his second run is often poorer than his first after a lay-off. The fact he’s coming off a rest and that he’s won at Cheltenham put him in the frame, whether he can step up by another quarter of a mile and produce another career best performance, however, is a doubt.
Cooldine was by far the most eye catching winner at the 2009 festival, romping away by 16 lengths to win the RSA Chase in a fashion that suggested he was a superstar arriving on the big stage. Since that day, however he hasn’t replicated those heights – in truth it would be difficult to after such a high – however, his second behind Joncol was a promising upturn in performance after his Lexus Chase disappointment. He obviously likes Cheltenham, and his performance last year suggests he’s capable of putting in a 180+ run that will be required, however he needs a big improvement again from his last run to challenge the headline acts.
Tricky Trickster has emerged as the Nicholls stable’s third string behind the big two in this race, and in recent weeks there has been an increasing swell of opinion behind him as the value option in this race and it’s fairly easy to see why. The joint favourite for the Grand National won after Denman unseated in the Aon Chase at Newbury, but it’s a subject of massive debate whether Ruby would have got him near to Denman had he stayed in one piece. But, he has produced increasingly improved performances, and while his main target may be to win the National for his stable for the first time he’s a live place chance and could run the front two closer than they’d like. He is the popular choice outside of the main two and there’s a real possibility that he could upset the established order.
Which leaves just two, the two that we’ll be hearing all about all week. In any other era, Denman would be the superstar, the favourite and probably going for his third Gold Cup to join the greats himself. He’s a tank of a horse that, at his peak just devours fences and punishes his opponents for having the cheek of trying to go with him until there are none left to oppose him. In 2008 he ground Kauto into the soft Cheltenham ground, but since that day he’s only got his head past the post once, albeit in a weight defying Hennessey performance in November. However the problems he’s faced since that day two years ago have clearly take a huge toll on him and whether he’ll ever reach those heights again is unlikely. His run in the Hennessey was impressive, but despite the runner up, What A Friend, subsequently winning a Grade 1 Lexus Chase I’m not entirely convinced of the strength of that field. Good but not necessarily great.
Denman’s subsequent run at Newbury ultimately culminated in a pair of errors that saw him unseat AP McCoy in the pairs first outing together and there have to be question marks whether the horses confidence has gone. He’s now made two huge and strikingly similar errors in the last three outings resulting in not finishing the course. In addition, while he probably would have won at Newbury he wasn’t the dominant force that his reputation and 1/6 price suggested he should have been. In 2008 he won the corresponding race by twenty lengths, he would have possibly won by four or five if Ruby had pushed out Tricky Trickster in the same fashion should Denman have stayed intact. The fact that Harry Findlay, Denman’s part-owner, is publicly contemplating defeat and, indeed, backing Kauto Star if the price is right.
And why indeed wouldn’t you want to back Kauto Star? That’s the question I’ve been trying to ask since Christmas, and I’m coming up with less and less reasons to oppose him as the days go by! I mentioned that Denman would be the superstar of most other generations, but this is the Kauto Star generation. He is, put simply the best racehorse I’ve ever had the pleasure of witnessing; 4 King George’s, 3 Betfair Chase’s, 2 Tingle Creek’s and 2 Gold Cup’s are a testament to that!
In 2008 Kauto Star jumped badly, and never ran his race. In fairness, Denman never let him, but it was clear a circuit out that he was struggling. His jumping back then was a weakness, always a question mark over him until he’d crossed the final obstacle and after his sound beating at Cheltenham in 2008 he promptly dumped Sam Thomas to the ground when under pressure at the final fence in the Betfair Chase at Haydock in the November. Since that day, however, he’s produced four excellent rounds of jumping and two of the finest performances ever witnessed.
Firstly he regained his Gold Cup crown, the first horse ever to do so at Cheltenham last year with a ruthless demolition of the field, eventually romping up the hill by thirteen clear lengths. It was the best performance I’ve ever had the pleasure to witness in a Gold Cup. He then followed it up with a frankly absurd thirty six length victory around Kempton for his fourth King George VI Chase, not a single foot out of place in either race. In between times he was pushed all the way by Imperial Commander at Haydock, and as I alluded to earlier, I think that’s a much underrated performance.
Can anything stop Kauto winning his third Gold Cup and cementing his place as the best horse since, well anyone you want to mention? The drier is stays, the more I can see him winning comfortably, even with some rain this week he must surely have too much for the rest of the field. Barring a monsoon I don’t think the ground will be anywhere near soft enough for Denman to impose himself on a Kauto Star that is so far improved from the horse we saw unravelled by “The Tank” and while Tricky Trickster, Imperial Commander or Cooldine could run a career best, 180 plus race I just don’t think that will be enough. 19th March 2010 is Kauto Star’s 10th birthday, I can’t see any other result than a 10th birthday present of a 3rd Gold Cup, and a 14th Grade 1 success to finally put beyond all doubt his place at the top table of jump racings legends.
